From Athens - Friday night Peppino's Pizza & Brew

averagedawg wrote:

As one who has built homes for 38 years, I can honestly say, it's never ever been as dismal as right now.
As housing goes, goes the economy.
Don't tell people like me, invested professionals, the economy is improving.
Total BS.

You are so right averagedawg. 50% of the CPI is wages and 25% is real estate. 12% makes up commodities. Commodities have inflated recently BUT inflation will still be tame because wages AREN'T going up and real estate prices are still going down. Corporate profits are the only bright spots (they trimmed the fat and top line growth is actually good).

We have a LONG way to go in real estate and wages.......deflation is still our worries (not inflation yet). I feel for you my friend. Hopefully things will turn in the next 2-5 years.....get ready for your taxes to go UP in 1 1/2 years, count on THAT.

wlayton, spoken like a person that understands . . . .

You posted . . .get ready for your taxes to go UP in 1 1/2 years, count on THAT

Guess that is the CHANGE that they failed to discuss last election. As sure as the sky is blue, there will be a tax increase. If the sky is not blue, there will be a tax increase.

Buying those high priced sports tickets are going to take a serious dive.

Housing got over built. Builders were specing like mad down here and in any other markets. Of course many of what turned out to be spec homes originally had (straw, fake, bullshit) buyers initially.

There are many, many bad guys in the housing story. At the end of the day the idea that home ownership is always a plus may need to be reevaluated. I understand the historical perspective, but times are different. What may have been right for the early 20th century may not always be right. The world is different.

I would not be surprised if taxes go up. Come August 2 something interesting will happen. The bills are too high so serious cuts in spending need to be made. Of course neither of the two big government liberal political parties wants to touch their personal pet peeves so no significant cuts will materialize I bet. And taxes will go up at some point to address the debt.

But hey...........we have expensive stuff to pay for and most people do not want to give up their expensive stuff.

kentdaddy, I agree, all the horror stories about contractors are, unfortunately, true.
We all get a bad name due to a few crooks.
I have spent my career working on high end, custom homes.
I care more about the product than the profit.
The people who can spend $500+/sq ft on a house aren't spending money because of tax uncertainties.
wlayton is right.
This hurts everyone, poor working stiffs like me.

averagedawg wrote:

kentdaddy, I agree, all the horror stories about contractors are, unfortunately, true.
We all get a bad name due to a few crooks.
I have spent my career working on high end, custom homes.
I care more about the product than the profit.
The people who can spend $500+/sq ft on a house aren't spending money because of tax uncertainties.
wlayton is right.
This hurts everyone, poor working stiffs like me.

Yes, but like the mortgage business the recent boom turned lots of people into contractors. The thing just got way ahead of the normal growth curve and now we have a metric poop ton of units sitting empty all over the place.

But your demo should still be fine.

And yes it hurts everyone now, but it benefited everyone on the way up and unfortunately the tab came due. That is the nature of the boom bust cycle. On the way up everyone thought they were really that good, that savvy and that smart.

Real estate market is no different than any other markets.......when EVERYBODY is "bullish" or getting in a particular market, buying, buying, buying....oh, it's EASY MONEY, you had better be selling and getting OUT, OUT, OUT.


I've mentioned many times the contrarian theory of investing. Goes for gold, silver, oil, stock market, housing market etc etc etc