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Orange Bowl Redux

3 weeks 3 days ago #82281 by Wartdawg
Replied by Wartdawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
I'm going to play the devil's advocate a moment just to keep things level..

Thriller... all that info about UGA and 'Bama is true, but I throw it all out the window when it comes to these teams.

I do that because until proven otherwise, Saban lives in Kirby's head rent free.

We were the better team in 2017 and still found a way to lose to them. I think we were better in 2018 and still found a way to lose to them in the SECCG.
Whatever reasons behind it, we are the better team this year and yep.. you guessed it.

Just take that all into consideration when placing your bets.

This is why I don't gamble!

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3 weeks 3 days ago #82282 by Wartdawg
Replied by Wartdawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
Let me start by saying my comments here are not trying to say anyone is "wrong", but again... let me play devil's advocate..

thriller wrote:
1. Who had more at stake in the SECCG, Bama or Georgia? Answer: Bama BY FAR. Lose and GO HOME (er - to a New Year's Day bowl game). For Georgia, lose and just be playing someone else in the CFP.


A lot of truth to this, but UGA knocking Alabama out of the NCCG at any point is a pretty big deal, and being more of an absolute "must" game doesn't excuse the mental guffaws I saw in the SECCG; like not calling a timeout to slow the tempo when Saban gassed our D in the 2nd qtr. Saban dictated the pace and Kirby went brain dead. The O also hung the D out to dry with their consecutive 40 second 3 and outs. The D also collapsed mentally; forgetting the zone responsibilities while in zone and forgetting to keep an eye on young when in man. NONE of that had anything to do with who needed the game more. It just didn't.

thriller wrote: 2. What was the potential DOWNSIDE of a Bama win for Bama, versus a Georgia win for Georgia? I was a little confused by the question. As he explained, Bama had ALL CHIPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TABLE. What happened to Metchie shows you the potential DOWNSIDE of being in Bama's position. Georgia sure didn't want THAT. In other words, the risk for Bama in giving it EVERYTHING was getting a star like Metchie injured, but the win made the "sacrifice" "worth it".


To me this is irrelevant. UGA didn't hold anything back. We didn't save any starters or hold anyone out. They didn't throw a virgin in a volcano to get a win and we gave everything we had as well.. they had some bad luck that certainly hurt them moving forward, but for them it has always been next man up and they hardly ever miss a beat.

thriller wrote: 3. Seven of Bama's points in the SECCG came on a pick 6. If Stumpy Stetson had thrown to the CORRECT receiver on that play (Jermaine Burton, on the outside - had his man badly beaten), it would have been 6 points the OTHER WAY. That's a 14 point turnaround. It was "only" a 17 point final margin.


Yes, but isn't that always the problem? Their QB makes the right read and ours doesn't? This is just an assessment of what happened and these sort of assessments can be made in any loss. The losing team always makes mistakes. That doesn't
mean the next time those sort of swings won't happen again.

thriller wrote: 4. The OTHER INT in the game was not The Hobbit's fault - something I hate to admit is true. It was, of all people, Brock Bower's fault for inexplicably stopping on his route - AT THE ALABAMA 10 FREAKING YARD LINE. There's 7 more points, right there.


Assuming we go ahead and score a TD there set aside, again this is another "but isn't that always the problem?"

Against Alabama, UGA players have always been the ones to make mental mistakes and Saban's players do not. That's coaching to the 99th level of detail. Consistently it's the UGA guy who does something inexplicable. Look no further to the 2017 NCCG when a UGA safety totally forgot his PRIMARY responsibility in cover-2 defense at the biggest moment in the biggest game.

thriller wrote: 5. And finally, as he pointed out to me, Georgia's win over Michigan was much more impressive than Bama's win over Cincy, like it or not. Sure, Bama beat a double digit spread, but Georgia SLAUGHTERED a 7.5 point spread. Even casinos that had Georgia as 10 point favorites were shocked at how easy that was. The eye test means a lot to gamblers.

So, according to Bob, Bama's win in the SECCG is actually just keeping the spread DOWN. (Some think the REAL spread should be closer to 7.5, which he thinks is why the spread has actually gone up slightly.)


All true, but none of this means anything to me. How impressive everything before was is irrelevant when demonstrable history shows you can throw all that out when it's Kirby vs Saban as I alluded to earlier. A>B and B>C does not mean A>C. Football isn't as absolute as mathematics, and what the betting world does and how that affects betting lines is something that only exists to make sure Vegas always wins.

Food for thought..

God bless and go Dawgs..

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3 weeks 3 days ago #82283 by thriller
Replied by thriller on topic Orange Bowl Redux
No doubt about it, it's ALWAYS easy to refute those kinds of points when we're staring a HUGE "L" in the rearview mirror. NO DOUBT.

But I notice you made no attempt to refute the POINT of my post which was this:

"I have to admit - I'm STILL BAFFLED."

The point of my post was wondering WTH the casinos are thinking, and I got an answer from a guy who actually gambles (I call it THROWING MONEY away.)

I'm not a Pollyanna . . . I don't think Georgia has ANY chance in this upcoming game. ZERO. Why? Because unless we get a whole new coaching staff and a whole new set of QBs top to bottom, and a whole new secondary, I don't see what changes between now and next Monday can be made that are going to turn that last result around. I've been casting around trying to find SOMETHING that would make me the SLIGHTEST BIT optimistic. And it's NOT THERE.

I even went back to watch Bama's performance and watched the A&M game. The FloriDUH game. The Arkansas game. The Abuurn game. (Highlights only, I must admit.) Nothing I saw makes me think the Dawgs have a CHANCE. Every single mistake Bama made, they've FIXED.

So apologies to all if what I wrote made people think I'm somehow a "believer". Because since Dan Marino beat us on a 4th and 4 in the Sugar Bowl, I have not believed we were going to win another one. The number of "close calls" since then is mind boggling . . .

Just like the STUPIDITY of the odds makers in Vegas.

Like I said, I'm STILL BAFFLED.
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3 weeks 2 days ago - 3 weeks 2 days ago #82284 by SouthernDawg
Replied by SouthernDawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
thriller,

As a gambler, I think I can shed light on why Vegas is betting on the Dawgs to win this game. Oddsmakers are statisticians and mathematicians, and their job is to set odds so that there's an equal number of bets on both sides of the action. They look at an enormous amount of data, trends, players, team information, body of work, injuries, and so on. These people are not idiots, and there's a reason why its sort of the unofficial gambler's credo that you "don't bet against Vegas." If you look at the aggregate sum of bets placed in one season and the odds Vegas places on the action, Vegas is usually correct. Overall, Vegas' record is better than the opposition. Why? Because they know what they're doing and they pour billions of dollars a year into 3rd party oddsmakers. Can you point to an individual error they make? Sure. UGA was -7.5 against Michigan and they crushed that. In a vacuum it looks like Vegas was out to lunch. But overall, they're still way ahead in the betting. Trust me, they're not in the business to lose money, and they don't usually. They might lose some games, but Vegas never finishes with a "losing season."

Oddsmakers aren't fat guys in smoky rooms setting spreads based on gut feelings. The odds are based on sophisticated algorithmic data and analysis that tells them where to be comfortable placing the odds to make money, and to secure enough bets on both sides of the action.

While you may have no hope of UGA winning this game, you're coming at it from the perspective of a fan. Vegas ain't a fan. They're 100% non-emotional about this. The oddsmakers look at this as an individual game AND a game that sees a UGA team lining up that hasn't won a national championship in 40 years. They look at the body of work UGA has put together this season, and do not factor in such media talking narratives as "Saban is in Kirby's head." This is about stats and odds, not "bogeymen." Vegas does realize that eventually, UGA will snap the losing streak, and they saying there's enough data right now that points to this being the game where they do. That's all. Nothing more, nothing less.

That said, I'm usually the most negative person I know. I'm a perpetual dark rain cloud, but even I am not as negative as to think UGA has absolutely no chance to win this game. They do, and they could. But you've stated your reasons, I respect those reasons and I don't think you're crazy. I think you're just beaten down like all of us are. I still think we have a good shot at winning this game. The phrase I have used all week & continue to use is "cautiously optimistic"

Go Dawgs!
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3 weeks 2 days ago #82285 by Wartdawg
Replied by Wartdawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
Thriller, When I made my post I was coming at it from a "this is why I wouldn't get excited about Georgia being a favorite because Vegas has some secret insight as to what's going to happen on the field" perspective.

I share much of your doubter's sentiment.

I didn't address the being baffled by the line because I have long understood how lines are created as SD went into detail about. Lines are there to get the money bet evenly on both sides: That's pretty much it.. period. Vegas has no clue or care as to being accurate regarding the on field result. Alabama could win by 31 and many would say "how could Vegas have been so wrong?", but Vegas wouldn't have been wrong at all if we understand the ultimate goal of their "line". They don't give a rat's arse how the game score plays out and how close they were to that.

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3 weeks 1 day ago #82286 by scooby
Replied by scooby on topic Orange Bowl Redux
I’m not a gambler…

But if I was I’d be betting big on the dawgs. No kidding! I thought Michigan was going to be a tight game. The way WE blew out the wolverines, Bama will be a cake walk. I really see an easy win for the dawgs.

Maybe get a big enough lead, JT gets a little playing time…

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