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Orange Bowl Redux

3 weeks 1 day ago #82289 by thriller
Replied by thriller on topic Orange Bowl Redux
After watching this, I don't feel *QUITE* so stupid.

Turns out I'm not the ONLY one baffled:

(Start watching this, if you want to, at the 10:10 mark. And NO, I'm not a 20 year old who pictures some fat dude with a black visor, chewing on a short stogie being the bookie. I KNOW the line-setters are sophisticated. It's the line versus the previous result that I don't get. And I'm NOT ALONE. This makes some of the points made by southerndawg about that sophistication, but I'm not the only one in the dark on what is going on.)

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3 weeks 1 day ago #82290 by Wartdawg
Replied by Wartdawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
I don't think you ever should have thought you were missing something.
With the prior history.... of Kirby's entire career; the line doesn't make logical sense.

Personally I would have UGA as a 5 point underdog, but my reasons are
not so esoteric as the ones from Vegas.

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3 weeks 1 day ago - 3 weeks 1 day ago #82291 by Wartdawg
Replied by Wartdawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
So I listened to that and it still comes down to same thing. Vegas expects a lot of big money coming in late on Georgia so the line is set right now so most of all the early money will be coming down on 'Bama.

So they are still doing what they feel they need to do to have the money equal out on both sides: All the early money is coming in on one side, 'Bama, because all the late money will come in on Georgia. If the line was more like what I said, Bama by 5.. the money right now would be about even and then all that late money on UGA would cause Vegas to lose their shirt.. and they rarely loose their shirt.

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3 weeks 10 hours ago #82292 by thriller
Replied by thriller on topic Orange Bowl Redux
It's the expectation of the sharps making HUGE, LATE "investments" in favor of Georgia that is most confusing to me.

If someone put a gun to my head RIGHT NOW, and told me I HAVE to make a wager on this game, and the amount I have to wager is my MORTGAGE, I'd have to put my money on Bama, based on past performance (especially RECENT past).

I'm thinking the game goes very similar to the last one. Georgia may even get up early (though I'm afraid we won't). But either the "psychology" that has now been permanently baked into our program, or Saban's weird "voodoo" will kick in AGAIN, and the game will (once again) get away from us and the final score will BALLOON into something very ugly.

I'm expecting Bama 48 UGA 20.

Even if we're up 34-3 in the 4th quarter, like we were against Michigan, I will not be confident of a win unless the score stays the same until there's only about 3 minutes left. And even then my stomach will be in knots.

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3 weeks 7 hours ago #82293 by Wartdawg
Replied by Wartdawg on topic Orange Bowl Redux
I think that big late money must not operate worrying about jinxes, voodoos, and right or wrong they have a formula they stick to win or lose. That formula works out for them most of the time or they wouldn't be big time players.

Maybe some Saudi Prince spent 87 billion dollars picking UGA over Alabama in the NCCG before the season ever started, and Vegas is now struggling to get the Bama side even..

Who knows?

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