Trends and Georgia's chances on Saturday

I know, I know, it's been a while. But ladies and gents, I have news for you: it is a good thing, a damn good thing that Alabama is the defending National Champion. Why is this? Thank you for asking.

As you may know, I'm big into history and big into trends and patterns, a major one of which pops up this week: Georgia's record against defending consensus national or co-national champions.

All-time, Georgia is 11-6 against defending national champions, including 9-5 in-conference (in 1927, Georgia Tech was in the Southern Conference, of which we were also a part). Very interesting: Georgia is 8-4 all-time against consensus champions (which Alabama was last year) and 3-2 against co-national champions.

Since the 1980 National Championship, Georgia is 7-2 against defending national champions. The two losses came in 1999 (against Tennessee) and 2009 (against Florida)

Since the 1992 expansion of the SEC, Georgia is 3-0 against defending national champions from the SEC West, having defeated LSU in 2004 and 2008 and Auburn in 2011.

The 2012 SEC Championship will mark the 7th time Georgia has faced Alabama in the year following a national title, making the Tide by far our most popular post-championship opponent. In the previous six meetings, Georgia is 3-3. When Alabama is defending a consensus national title, Georgia is 1-1 against the Tide.

When we've played Alabama on a neutral field (in all previous cases, the game was played in Birmingham, AL), we are 1-2; the lone victory came in 1927, a year in which the Boand and Poling systems picked the Dawgs as the national champion.

All-time, we are 5-4 against defending national champions on a neutral playing site. This will be the first time that the neutral site is the SEC Championship in Atlanta. Under Mark Richt, we are 12-15 on neutral fields; the record is 3-3 when that neutral site is in Atlanta. Under Mark Richt we are 2-2 in the SEC Championship game.

What does that mean? Over the long haul, I'd say it means we have about a 50% chance of beating Alabama when taking 86 years' worth of playing history into account. In the last 30 years, however, the historical data suggests that we have a 77% chance of winning the conference and playing Notre Dame in Miami.

Incidentally, in 120 seasons we have only played Notre Dame once. We defeated the Irish 17-10 in the Sugar Bowl to claim the 1980 National Championship.

dapolla, that was AWESOME! I am a follower of history - especially DAWGS history - and really enjoy stats. GREAT JOB!

I hope it helps us this Saturday!

dapolla, you mention Alabama numerous times in your thread, and with good cause. Yes, glad to see you back.

Did not know where to place the link below, after reading your thread, think this would be a good place to listen to the opposing coach. When Saban speaks, people listen, the further I went into this interview, the more I understand just how focused Saban is. Lots of coach speak, but most of his message comes through as a man that understands what facing the media means. Has many good memories and things to say about folks he has been associated with.

capstonereport.com/2012/11/26/sec-champi...28Capstone+Report%29

Buc, that interview had a couple of "gotchas" in it for me.

1. He mentions CTG as one of the top 2 or 3 assistants that came out of their systems. Three? Interesting. But what I found MOST interesting was his comment that CTG has his own ideas about how to run the defense. I'm thinking that either Saban knows every wrinkle CTG has installed, and therefore knows the weaknesses, or he may be watching film and scratching his head on what's going on. I doubt if it's the latter, though.

2. He mentions AM and the fact that he completes a high percentage. In that comment, he says that he throws a lot of "rhythm" passes. That caught my eye. Timing routes . . . maybe they think they have unlocked the code for disrupting AM? Saban is smart - so is Smart. Pun intended.

Ok - I've WAY over-analyzed that one!!! But that's just my nature!

thriller, one of the things that stands out to me about AM is his ability to throw the different routes. Whether an out, fly, post or chunk it under the cover two, he understands.

You mentioned in another thread about Marshall on the quick out, or swing, folks call it different things. Don't have the capacity to call plays like many, can bitch about the play call after it was made, but I can see Gurshall in the backfield together, and Marshall faking a chip block on the defensive end and releasing. This young man (Marshall) is not through with what he can do in the Red and Black.

Georgia/Alabama for the rights to go to Miami. Here is what I do think will happen . . . . we do things that we have not done before, the playbook is open, now is not a time to be timid and as some say, play for the fumble or play that got turned upside down.

Two ways to go. Do what you have done all season, and Saban/Smart and company have you hog tied. Want to play in Miami, turn the Dawgs loose, many have called for something different all year. Now is the time. TAM proved that you can catch Alabama off guard. Many on the Alabama boards say that they were never out of the game. I agree, but when the game was over, it was because TAM did SOMETHING DIFFERENT AND THEY GOT THE W. Just my two cents.

VERY true, Buc.

I'm sure the players all know that THIS is what they've worked so hard for, in some cases for four years. This is no time for timidity. Likewise with the play calls - don't worry about what you show Notre Dame. Two game season.

This is what we all wanted from day one this year (every year). Undefeated or not, we are where we would have been either way. 100% in our own control. Who cares about playoffs? We're already THERE!

I'm lovin' this!