UGA V UA 2011

WoodstockDawg wrote: Great Pic Buc!

Anybody have an idea why we are favored by 12 to 13 points, depending on the service you look at?

Seems a little high. Just Curious....

because we're going to win by about 2+ TD's and they are begging you to take Abuurn.

WoodstockDawg wrote: Great Pic Buc!

Anybody have an idea why we are favored by 12 to 13 points, depending on the service you look at?

Seems a little high. Just Curious....

WD, to me it's this analysis:

1. AU.. average offense.....versus......UGA's stout D
2. UGA's.. just barely above average offense........versus.....AU's weak D (especially against the run)

Combination should equal a 2 TD win.

It's really very simple folks.. Vegas doesn't do complex analysis of anything other than the
money that is being bet on both teams.

The reason the line is around 12-13 is because a lot of money was being bet on UGA.

Doesn't really mean UGA will win by that amount.. just means a lot of people were betting
on UGA and they have put the line where it needs to be to get offsetting money on Abuurn.

Wartdawg wrote: It's really very simple folks.. Vegas doesn't do complex analysis of anything other than the
money that is being bet on both teams.

The reason the line is around 12-13 is because a lot of money was being bet on UGA.

Doesn't really mean UGA will win by that amount.. just means a lot of people were betting
on UGA and they have put the line where it needs to be to get offsetting money on Abuurn.

Bingo!

Nevertheless, it's uncanny how accurate Vegas usually is. Let's hope.

It's only uncanny from the stand point that when a majority of people are betting on one
side, it's usually safe to say that one side will win big. Hence a big line for those
games. There is something valid in what you say though, because the big money betters
that drive the lines do know what they are doing. If the big money is all coming down
on one side, then usually they are right and the "line" and the actual margin will be
pretty big.

In games between closely matched competitors, lines probably fall into the 3 point
range on average, and the margin of victory is in the 3 point range on average.
The favored team wins most of the time,so most of the time the line is pretty close
to being correct.

It's just math and the law of averages, but it happens to work out that it's usually
fairly close to matching what really happens.

What's really freaky is how well they set the opening lines to match what the betting
public is thinking. When you see a line move, that's the adjustment they have to make
based on how the current money is coming in, and usually the lines move very little.
So Vegas' initial line is usually pretty dead on, on where it needs to be to get the
money even on both sides.

I know this stuff because of a friend who is a big time gambler. He once tried to
explain to me how they calculate the opening line, and it was a hodge-podge of
pre-line bets, common sense, and after that a bunch of gobeltygook that made my head
spin so much that I now call it "magic!".