UGA vs. UF Prediction (not smack talk)

Thought I’d share my prediction methods with my enemy this week.
For background purposes, I have been an avid football fan for over 30 yrs. Several years ago, my father and I tried to make sense of those crazy games where one team dominates yet still looses. We looked into what stats are important and which ones are not. For instance, time of possession means nothing. Even rushing stats mean very little if the other team passes for 500 yds. The most important stats are of course total yards, followed by turnovers, 3rd down conversations and penalties. Return yards are important too.
All this was put into a matrix and calculator based upon value, etc. I can tell you that it has been pretty darned accurate at simulating the final score based upon 5 simple stats. Of course it cannot be a predictor since nobody knows how well or poorly a team may play on any given day. That said, I started using it as a predictor for Gator games just before the Arkansas game. By inputting the values that I THOUGHT each team would achieve based upon past performance, I had predicted the Gators would win 35 – 20. What I failed to predict was UF’s four turnovers. As we now know, UF pulled out a squeaker 23-20.
For last week’s game vs. Miss State, I predicted that the Gators would win 27-10. They have a tougher defense than Arky but not a great offense. Of course we won 29-19 but in no way did I predict that Tebow would throw two pick sixes.
Going into this week vs. UGA and now knowing that my Gators are struggling in the red zone, my estimator tells me that the Gators should win 30-14. This is based upon both teams past performances. If I give a 35% advantage to the Dawgs in all statistical categories since they are coming off the bye week, then the prediction drops to a 24-17 victory for the Gators. But of course there may be some unforeseen things in this game too. I predict the turnover margin to be even and UGA having a slight edge in KR and PR. If UGA has a +1 turnover margin this becomes a dead heat. If UGA has a +2 turnover margin, then they win by a field goal.
This will be a close one.

Interesting GatorinGa.

I'm not sure we can score 10 points unless with special teams help. We will not run the ball against UF's D and they will start coming after Cox with reckless abandon. He could throw 2-3 picks because of it. You may want to adjust your turnover margin.






Hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're wrong, too, wlayton, but I see it the same way. Our problem with turnovers is that we give the ball away quite a bit, but the D rarely ever creates any to keep the TO margin realistic. Unless the coaching staff and D did some serious soul searching on the week off, this could get ugly.

GatorinGA,
Very interesting stuff. I admire your efforts to quantify your predictions. It is a definite relief to think we may get beat by a score of only 30-14, and I mean that sincerely. Currently, most of us on this forum I dare say, would tend to agree that our Dawgs' bark is worse than our bite. We wish it were otherwise, especially when it come to the WLOCP, but we have to live in the real world most of the time. Our Dawgs are just not getting it done this year. The outcome of this game will have a significant impact on the quality of the Bulldog season, but it will not IMHO be much of an indicator of our team's progress. Even if we win, UF remains superior at the present time. I hate it, but that is life in the real world.
Yes, we have a chance to win this game, but I hold only a thread of hope for that outcome. We are fortunate the Gators beat Miss State, otherwise, Tebow and the other lizzards would have been extremely upset and likely taken it out on our poor boys.
IMHO (again) our program cannot and will not make significant progress until our defensive coordinator issue is resolved. Even if we were to beat UF and win our remaining games, that issue would remain as an obstacle to our progress. That is just my opinion of course, but it does seem to be a pretty popular one nowadays!

Prediction:
Worst Case: Gators 59 Dawgs 6
Probable Case: Gators 31 Dawgs 20
Best Case: Gators 20 Dawgs 24

Worst case is we win and WM is back next yr!!