I’ve watched a lot of seasons start in Athens, and more than a few that looked pretty on the surface before the grind of October knocked the shine off. This one has a familiar hum to it—clean in the details, stubborn in the trenches, and just spicy enough on the perimeter to win the kind of coin-flip games that determine banners.

At 3–0 with that overtime escape in Knoxville, Kirby’s bunch has shown both their ceiling and their scar tissue. They’re good enough to come back in a hostile stadium, and human enough to fall behind in one. That combination, along with the way the schedule stacks from late September to mid-November, is what will shape the rest of the year. Georgia sits 3–0, 1–0 in the league, ranked in the top ten of every meaningful metric that matters to the committee later, and with the heaviest punches still to be thrown.

The Tennessee win told us plenty about personality. Gunner Stockton has quarterbacked the offense with veteran eyes—70% completions, zero picks so far—and he’s distributing like a point guard, with Colbie Young and Zachariah Branch giving Georgia a true outside-in threat. The staff leaned on the ground game when it mattered, and Nate Frazier’s first-snap haymaker in overtime was straight from the Mark Richt “hit the crease and say amen” catalog, followed by Josh McCray’s short plunge to end it. That sequence wasn’t just dramatic; it showcased a line that’s starting to find its double-team voice and a backfield with enough variety to finish drives without asking the QB to be a superhero. Through three games, Stockton leads with 721 passing yards and four touchdowns, Frazier tops the rush list, and Peyton Woodring has been automatic, which will matter in two or three chilly coin flips down the line.

Defensively, the standard is still the standard, but this unit is more “bend with bite” than “steel door” right now. The tackling ledger says Raylen Wilson has emerged as the traffic cop in the middle, and Georgia’s back seven closed better late in Knoxville than they did early. What the box scores don’t fully show yet is the pass-rush timing; it’s come in flurries rather than on schedule. That’s a developmental thing, not a talent thing, and it tends to click around the time the first cold front rolls into Clarke County. Georgia’s profile in the predictive SP+ universe frames the story neatly: top-10 overall with an offense grading a tick ahead of the defense at the moment. The next month will test that balance.

Now, about that stretch run. Alabama in Athens on September 27 will be the kind of game that turns your FitBit into a lie detector. The Tide grade as an elite SP+ team with a top-10 unit on both sides, and they’ve stabilized after the early stumble. In this matchup, Georgia’s edge is continuity at quarterback and the ability to manufacture a run game out of different personnel groupings—split-flow zone with Frazier, QB keepers off GT counters with Stockton, and the occasional pin-and-pull to get the ball on the edge to Branch like a jet sweep that’s really a toss crack. The risk is early-down negative plays against Alabama’s interior. If Georgia keeps the chains on schedule and forces the Tide into some field-goal math, Sanford’s fourth quarter will do the rest. Call it a narrow home win, the kind you feel in your calves on Sunday morning.

Kentucky the following week is the classic trap after a heavyweight bout. The Wildcats’ front, by the numbers, is stingy enough to make you drive the long field, and their SP+ profile lives on defense. Kirby will lean on field position—pooch punts, corner coffins, and a heavy dose of under-center gap schemes to shorten the day. Georgia grinds that one out by wearing down a thin two-deep.

Auburn on the Plains is always a weird day, and this Auburn team can run it well enough to muddy clean pictures, with a top-20 predictive profile that screams “four-quarter fistfight.” But Auburn’s passing game lacks the vertical efficiency to punish Georgia’s pattern-match rules unless the Tigers can steal explosives off busted contain. Georgia’s rotating edge group—more fastballs than sledgehammers—should be enough to keep the lid on, and Stockton’s third-down maturity travels. I like Georgia by one score in a game where you appreciate Woodring’s leg and the punt team’s discipline.

Ole Miss in Athens is the analytics darling that tests leverage and eyes. Lane’s offense stresses flats and seams with tempo and formation into the boundary; Georgia’s answer will be simulated pressure and mug-then-bail looks to bait throws into robber help. If the Rebels protect, this could be the wobbliest Saturday of the fall, because Ole Miss carries top-five efficiency chops and can flip a game in six minutes. The hedge here is Sanford at night and Georgia’s red-zone efficiency—Smart’s teams are historically comfortable making you kick from the 13. Toss-up feel, but I’ll put this in the “one loss risk” bucket.

Florida in Jacksonville is about matchups more than records. The Gators’ defense carries a top-30 efficiency grade, but the offense is still finding clean answers versus bracket coverage and simulated creepers. If Georgia’s front stymies early run scripts, this Cocktail Party tilts red and black by halftime, and the fourth quarter turns into a clock-eating clinic with extra helpings of duo and counter. Dawgs by two possessions.

Mississippi State in Starkville is a no-nonsense road assignment. The Bulldogs (the other ones) are top-45 in SP+ with a defense that wins on early downs, but their offense doesn’t threaten enough areas to stress Georgia’s personnel. Expect a conservative plan: protect the ball, move the launch point, and let the roster depth handle the last 20 minutes. Win and get home healthy.

Texas in mid-November is the other pivot. The Longhorns’ defense grades as the nation’s stingiest unit right now, and they carry Sunday dudes across the front. This is a game where Georgia will need explosives via design more than talent—shot plays off condensed sets, wheel-switch concepts to stress rules, and the occasional Branch gadget to steal points. It smells like 23–20 either way. Because it’s in Athens and because Georgia is steadier in the kicking and return game, I’ll tilt it Dawgs by a field goal, but this is the most losable home date on the slate.

Charlotte is a late-November palate cleanser, and Georgia Tech on Black Friday will arrive with more juice than it’s had in a while. Brent Key’s crew has climbed into the rankings and found a clear identity—tough on defense and opportunistic enough on offense to give you a bad afternoon if you take them lightly. But Georgia’s advantage in both lines and the depth of the skill room should separate in the second half. The streak holds, even if the Jackets make it hum for a while.

Put it all together and here’s how I see it, with the homer glasses wiped clean: Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas are the three landmines. Georgia already banked the road win at Tennessee, and the rest of the league slate tilts favorable by talent and depth. The most probable path is 11–1, SEC East (or—old habits—SEC berth) secured, and a return to Atlanta with playoff stakes in play. A perfect 12–0 isn’t fairy tale stuff, but it would require winning two of those three toss-ups and staying ahead of the turnover gods; a 10–2 season lives out there too if the pass rush doesn’t mature on schedule and the explosive-play ledger dries up. Given what we’ve seen—efficient quarterbacking, a run game that finishes drives, special teams that cash in, and a defense whose ceiling is still climbing—I’ll plant my flag on 11–1 with a November that feels like 2017 in all the good ways. From there, it’s one afternoon in Atlanta for the right to keep playing ball in December and January. And if you made me bet my favorite tailgate chair, I’d say these Dawgs are still barking when the playoff bracket drops.

As Coach Dooley used to say, you don’t win the season in September—but you sure can lose it. Georgia hasn’t, and they’ve shown just enough grit and guile to suggest the best football’s ahead. That’s a mighty fine place to be when the leaves start to turn.