Picks - Mine, at least

Every year, I write up my picks for the winners of the eleven I-A conferences and send them out to my family, who don't care. The SEC analysis is -- as you will see -- the longest and most detailed. After all, everyone knows that if you win the SEC, you should AUTOMATICALLY get to play in the Nat'l Championship game. Perhaps you guys will care enough to respond. Mid-majors first, then BCS conferences. Enjoy!

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Sun Belt: I’ll try and do a little better than last year’s “Who cares?” analysis of this conference. Then again, who does care? When a 6-5 Arkansas State Indians team can win your conference and the defending champ goes 2-9 the following year, you don’t really have that exciting of a season lined up. I’m going with UL-Monroe. That’s right, the other Indians. ‘Course, they won’t be allowed to play in a bowl unless they change their names to something like the UL-Monroe Sensitivity Trainers, or something…

C-USA: Once again, I ask you who is still in this conference. Last year I picked Southern Miss, and they disappointed me. Then again, the C-USA championship game between Tulsa and Central Florida was the second-most exciting championship game of last year – second only to the MAC Championship, the only championship game I watch unless Georgia wins the East. I think it’s Mike Price’s year. Let’s go with UTEP, who barely missed the game last year. Go Miners!

MAC: Holy crap. Now that the Directionals are back in contention – well, at least Western and Eastern Mich. are – the MAC is even more exciting this year than normal. I think Northern Illinois got caught napping in last year’s one-point championship game thriller, and I think they’ll take Toledo twice in a row and then get themselves into the Motor City Bowl by defeating…oh, I don’t know…some team from Ohio. Their schedule lines up such that if they’re talented, they could be 10-2 going into the championship game, or even 11-1 should they beat the ever-inconsistent Iowa Hawkeyes in an upset.

WAC: Yikes. With Dan Hawkins gone and Boise State coming off of a disappointing season to say the least, a whole new slew of contenders pops up. Well, maybe not a slew – this is the WAC, after all – but look for the Big Three to be at each other’s throats. Nevada and Boise State technically both had a share of the WAC crown last year, but if the Fresno State Bulldogs can keep it together they’ll be champs this year. Of course, this is assuming that Nevada had a fluke season last year. If the Wolfpack plays like they did in the regular season and not in their bowl game, they could take out Fresno State twice in a row and claim the WAC for their own. The only certainty is this: the Broncos are out of the running this year.

MWC: Wow. Was Utah good last year or was Utah good? I mean in spite of the loss of Urban Meyer and Alex Smith, that is. Was I the only one watching them take Georgia Tech apart in the bowl game last year? That said, Texas Christian took apart the conference with a vengeance last year, and according to all eyes and ears have only gotten better in the off-season. Look for a tight race – no championship game in the Mountain West – with the Horned Frogs emerging victorious over the late-surging Utes.

ACC: Look out for Boston College. Those boys’re good. Same goes for Virginia. Now that we’ve gotten the compulsory dark horse watch list out of the way, it’s time to state the obvious: Virginia Tech and Florida State will be playing in Jacksonville again this year. Seriously, the ACC is so far down save these two teams it’s practically a non-BCS conference this year, and with Miami’s entire coaching staff on the unemployment line, does anybody but the most romantic among us think they’ll be in contention? Maybe the ACC and the Big East should go off and play in a room together while the real football teams duke it out on a national stage. The Hokies, ‘Noles and WVU Mountaineers will receive their invites to play with the big boys about mid-season. That said, the Seminoles didn’t even deserve to play in the championship game last year, let alone win it. Virginia Tech rebounds, takes its second title in three years, and is crushed in the Sugar Bowl or the Orange Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl or wherever it is they’re sent.

Big East: People are predicting West Virginia to win the national championship this year, based on their so-called domination of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl in January. These same folks fail to mention that the Mountaineers nearly lost a game in which they led 28-0 by the end of the first quarter and by only a field goal at the end of the fourth, that an effective spread-option team hasn’t won the national championship since 1995, and most importantly that West Virginia never lives up to expectations. They’re rapidly approaching Phil Fullmer’s Volunteers as the team least likely to succeed when projected to do so, and most likely to win as a dark horse. Look for Louisville to have a resurgence and take the Big East this year.

Big 10/11: What? They have eleven teams! Be accurate when you’re naming your conference! If Notre Dame signed a contract with them they’d have a championship game, make a ton of money, and applaud and/or bemoan the fact that The Big Game betwixt Michigan and Ohio State might happen twice. That said, is there really any doubt that we’re going to see a rematch of last year’s Fiesta Bowl this year, with the Buckeyes and the Irish duking it out for the national title? OSU takes this title and heads undefeated down to Tempe.

Big Twelve: My nephew can’t spell it, but he sure can sing it: Oklahoma! Adrian Peterson is healthy, they surged late last year, won their bowl game and they’re still angry about losing to Texas Christian in Norman. Most importantly of all, Vince Young is gone and so is Michael Huff.
Bonus Category: Big 12 North – Iowa State. Why? Because they’re the Cyclones and their colors are pretty. Then again, if Colorado can manage to beat Georgia, their whole season might go in a different direction. Either way, Oklahoma wins the championship game 56-12.


PAC-10: I’m convinced that this is the year USC falls off their throne. Oregon is up, Cal is always a threat and if Arizona State can find a way to defend the pass, they’re going to be contenders too. I’m going with Oregon this year, which means we’ll have to watch those god-awful uniforms in HD during the Rose Bowl. Quack quack!

SEC: I just can’t see Georgia doing it this year. Seeing as how we’ve only successfully defended the SEC championship twice in history – and one of those times was in 1981, when we split it with Alabama…the second time was the following year when we won it outright – and only defended the Eastern division by a twist of beaurocracy in 2003, and seeing as how we don’t have a starting quarterback, I just can’t pick the Bulldogs to go to the game this year. Which makes it very hard to pick a winner. But here goes. It is going to be nearly impossible this year to imagine anyone winning the East but Florida, or anyone winning the West but Auburn. Both of those programs are so impossibly good this year that any other combination of teams in Atlanta will cause me to tune into the game and watch it all the way through. That said, I think that both Georgia and South Carolina can beat Florida this year – can, not necessarily will. Also, have you seen Florida’s schedule? They play LSU, Alabama, Auburn and Georgia back-to-back-to-back-to-back, and then they play Vandy, who nearly beat them last year but for a terrible penalty. Then they get South Carolina in Gainesville as Spurrier comes back to The Swamp! Not to mention the fact that they have to go to Knoxville and play a rejuvenated Tennessee team. Suddenly the East looks wide open. And, er, have you seen Georgia’s schedule? Not for nothing, but we may backdoor our way into Atlanta again, as our West schedule is comprised of Mississippi State and Ole Miss, plus the compulsory Auburn game on the Plains. Assuming we can get by the Gamecocks and take out Tennessee in Athens, we may go into the Florida game undefeated. I doubt you can say the same for the Gators. So yeah, we’ll go back to the Georgia Dome. Probably in a rematch with Auburn. Who knows…history is not my master. Two in a row wouldn’t look too bad on the ol’ mantle!




BCS Bowls:

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida State or Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Florida or Auburn

National Championship Game: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State