What ifs? Will we have College Football in 2020?

I figured I would post something that doesn't qualify as "slow news day, huh?" on here that I know is on a lot of people's minds: the question of - will we see a college football season in 2020?

So to start answering this question of "will we see college football in 2020?," we have to start with the facts as we know them today.

Facts

1. Nearly an entire economy has had the plug pulled on it. Sure, there are "essential businesses" that are operating, but they're mainly breathing what economic oxygen remains in the reserve tanks at the moment.
2. All sports, right down to pee wee football, have been cancelled. Kentucky Derby, cancelled. Wimbledon, cancelled. NFL Draft, cancelled. The list goes on. The entirety of the sports universe as we know has completely shuttered.
3. Unemployment numbers are punching through the stratosphere. 10 million Americans have applied for unemployment.
4. The airlines are operating, now only on gov't bailouts, with a fraction of their flight schedules compared to 2/1/2020. American, United, Delta, and Southwest have all sent a significant percentage of their fleet to rest in the airplane graveyard in Arizona for storage.
5. The entire country is gripped in a white hot terror of even going to the grocery store.
6. We have seen stay-at-home orders issued across the country. As of this writing, April 4 2020, something like 40 States are under some kind of regulation/restriction for their freedom of movement. Schools, public & private, at all levels, have been shuttered.

So...what can we take from this to try to figure out what college football's future might be in 2020 and beyond? I think there are four main factors that will determine what happens.

When does the Virus panic subside?

There is nothing prophetic or insightful about my comments on this. Everything hinges upon this. Whether you believe the virus is the most devastating thing facing this country in its history and you think there could be millions dead, or whether you believe this is all a media-driven hoax with political goals in mind, I don't care either way. The question is how long does this thing impact us directly. Are we still seeing stay-at-home orders into June and the death toll skyrocketing, or have the numbers begun to drastically reduce and we're not seeing the eye-popping predictions come to pass? If we pass April into May and the numbers are where they are right now, I'd say the chances we see a 2020 season exponentially rise. If we pass April into May and the numbers are shocking, I'd say the chances plummet. Nothing sage there, just the facts.

Economy

How long does this economic suicide continue? That's the trillion fiat dollar question. If the economy continues to be choked out and this lasts until June, I put the chances of us having a season at less than 10%. Why do I say that? Because when you start pushing into June, time is running out. By the time June rolls around, we're going to get a real idea of what the economic outlook is, and the true nature of the serious impact will be realized by that point. Network advertising contracts are usually finalized before June for the upcoming season. Color analysts and play-by-play commentators are usually on one year contracts, except from the big names like Nessler, Danielson and the crew of Gameday who are signed to multi-year deals. Travel managers for the teams have booked charter flights with the airlines and reserved hotel rooms for road games by that point in time. Grounds keepers and facilities maintenance people, who are on furlough now, are building the turf and maintaining the stadiums for the season. Spring practices and scrimmages have wrapped up and coaches are having daily meetings to put the final ink on their playbooks. In other words, its not just workouts in the spring that are the building blocks for the college season, it's all the behind-the-scenes sausage making that gets done to ensure the season happens. Right now, none of that is happening. There are billions of dollars at stake right now hinging upon whether college football is played, and it doesn't make one a monster for pointing that out. The future of that multi-billion dollar enterprise, just like the economy itself, hangs in the balance. If, as the "experts" predict, we're sitting at 40, 60, or even 100 million people unemployed, there simply will not be the revenue to support a college football season. Stadiums would be empty, advertising dollars wouldn't be there, team merchandise sales would drastically decline, and people may not even have the money to watch the games at home on TV because the hard decision to cut the cord may have to be made for financial reasons. There will be, sadly, many sports bars that don't survive this, and thus providing less opportunity to watch the games and provide revenue back to the teams.

Societal Attitudes

Right now, if you're not wearing a mask and gloves in the grocery store, you might get a sideways look or nasty comment. At minimum, you'll have people backing away from you as if you ripped a nasty loud fart in the bread aisle. Society right now is afraid, and all of a sudden, the most important things have become the most important things. How am I going to educate my children? How am I going to feed my children? What's going to happen to my job? Will I lose my home? Those are the real and hard questions being asked right now, not: will Georgia play Florida this year? Will Michigan play Ohio State? To be sure, America loves its bread and circus that is sports, but it is more concerned with just finding bread right now. Societal attitudes are greatly influenced by economy, just like the heart influences the circulatory system. We might find that in June, sports is the farthest thing from anyone's mind. If that's where we find ourselves in June, it's going to be a long shot at best that we see any pigskin being tossed in 2020. Then there's the logistics of putting on a game. I'd say at bare minimum you've got 200 people that are essential to playing a game: 50 players on each side line, 25 support personnel on each side line, plus referees, plus TV and camera crews, plus security. I think 200 is probably a low number. Are the referees going to be willing to fly by that time? Will the airlines return to normal to have a robust flight schedule to ferry all these key people essential to putting on a game to the home team's city? Will people be comfortable with flying by that time? Will people feel comfortable staying in hotels by that time? These are all real questions that are going to have to be answered one way or the other.

I'm not trying to be a doomsayer, I'm just being realistic. If we see an end to these lockdowns and the economic shutdown by May 1st, then I think things will look positive toward a 2020 season.

The NCAA, the Athletic Directors, and the Lawyers

I wouldn't want to be an AD that reigns over a multi-billion dollar enterprise and have the burden of the future not only of my program, but the future of college athletics as a whole hanging over my head. The AD's had no choice but suspend spring practices and scrimmages. The pressure was mounting, and of course, the legal beagles were part and parcel of that decision. No AD is going to risk the legal repercussion of continuing on with spring practice, scrimmages, and meetings with the potential for a tidal wave of lawsuits to wash upon his program. Further, and maybe the most unique aspect of this, if there is going to be a college season, the decision will have to unanimous amongst the ADs and the NCAA. You can't have 11 of the 14 SEC schools in agreement that the season should start. You can't have Clemson saying they'll play, but Duke or FSU saying no. The NCAA will have to make a decision, but the schools will have to buy in to it. Can you get all the college programs to agree that they should have a season? If the NCAA mandates the season will be played on time, but you have a few renegade hold outs that say no, then I don't see any way a season can start. One single program digging its heels in and saying 'we don't feel comfortable playing' would have a domino effect on the season that would topple it. The lawyers are in place to mitigate the risk to the programs, and I don't begrudge them for that. There are big questions that have to be asked, and this is an equation that has a lot of variables that must be solved and plugged back in to arrive at an answer.

Final thoughts..

I think most people crave normalcy right now, and I think that craving is one hell of a good catalyst to seeing a college season played. But there are far more high level questions that need to be answered for us to return to that normalcy. Is this the new normal? I sure hope not. Hopefully this will spark some discussion on the forum. I hope all you guys are doing well, staying safe, and maintaining sanity.

Edit: I didn't know SDS ran an editorial with the same subject this morning.

Thanks SD... for taking the time to share your thoughts...

Like the rest of the world... when addressing the pandemic..

Use of words such as ..if..but..projections...best case...


We don’t know how this ends....or when... the. Only given I

Feel accurate.... life will not be the same...and we will have to

Adjust to the new norm ....as it evolves... which is what we are doing

Daily... stay safe and well.....