Predictions for the 2009 Football Season

Every May, I put out these predictions. As we get closer to the season, I'll do my prediction for each game. But for now, courage!

Predictions for the 2009 College Football Season


Last year I went 4 for 11 in my conference predictions and 0-for the bowls. Ah, well…they can’t all be championship years…



Western Athletic Conference

This should prove to be an interesting year. Boise State had a phenomenal year last year, but they lose Ian Johnson at the tailback position. They’re also in an odd-numbered year, which means they’re due for another disappointing (9-3, 8-4) season; the last time they had one of those, Hawai’i went undefeated all the way to the Sugar Bowl and took the WAC. The problem is that the WAC is going to be god-awful this year. Fresno State is on what appears to be an unstoppable downslide, and Hawai’i just hasn’t proven to me that they’ve brought anyone in who can make that team what it was when June Jones’ quarterback factory was there. Besides, Boise State’s proven it can win the WAC in an 8-4 year (witness 2005), so that’s where I’m going. Until someone else steps up, the Broncos own that conference.


Sun Belt

Tough. Every time I pick Troy, someone else (Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic) takes it home. Every time I pick a sleeper, Troy takes it home. Here’s the deal: I’m picking Troy, but don’t be surprised if Arkansas State sneaks up as a sleeper and makes it interesting. The Red Wolves are not too far removed from winning their own SBC title, and they’ve been steadily improving over the last couple of years. So I’ll pick Troy. But watch out come September 26. The Men of Troy have to go to Jonesboro…oughtta be interesting, if you want to pay for ESPN 360…


Mid-American Confernence

I know you’re never supposed to go on what happened last year, especially in this crazy league, but the combination of what Turner Gill has done at SUNY-Buffalo with the bizarre fact that nobody offered him a coaching job at a bigger school in the off-season leads me to believe that this year, the East is the Bulls’ for the taking. And no, Ball State isn’t going to run through the regular season undefeated, but neither was last year a fluke. Remember in 2007, when they beat a good Navy team, lost to Nebraska by one point and finished in the money come bowl selection? One quarterback does not a team make, and David Letterman’s alma mater has a pretty good program brewing. I’m picking a rematch of last year’s MAC Championship game, with the Cardinals coming out on top in the 2009 edition.


Mountain West

I don’t care what anyone says, Utah should have been the national champions last year. The Mountain West was the third – possibly tied for second – best conference in FBS football last year. The reason I say tied for second is that, like the second-best conference of last year – the SEC – the MWC had three outstanding teams and a room full of stinkers. Its Florida, Alabama and Georgia were Utah, BYU and TCU. And Utah, you might remember, beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year. The question is, who’s going to take this beast this year? The past few years I’ve stood up for TCU, and you’d think I’d change my tune. Look, the fact is that TCU has a defense that can stifle anyone, and it hasn’t gone anywhere. Their quarterback is gone, but Marcus Jackson, his backup, knows the system and had significant playing time last year. Did I mention that they held three high-scoring teams in BYU, Air Force and Boise State to 7, 10 and 16 points respectively? Horned Frogs. Write it down.


Conference USA

I think the ECU dynasty began last year. I’m not going to waste time or space writing about the job Skip Holtz has done. You know what he’s done. You know what he will do. His quarterback is returning. ECU over Houston in the championship game. Done. Can’t be undone.


Independents

It’s useless to even predict these terrible teams’ seasons. You’ve almost got to look at their schedules and determine which teams won’t utterly destroy them and calculate a win-loss record that way. The only easy prediction is Army, who’s a 2-win team at best this year (VMI and North Texas are on the second half of the schedule, so cadets have something to look forward to). Notre Dame is a five-win team this year again; does anyone know why a terrible program keeps scheduling the best teams in the country to obliterate it every year? Idiocy. Navy, on the other hand, is primed to not only win this “conference” by default, but to actually have a very good year. They’ve got a pretty good schedule and winnable games against good opponents. So I’m picking Navy. Paul Johnson or no.


Atlantic Coast Conference

Last year this was a race to see who wanted to win less. Every week that a team had a chance to clinch their division, it seemed, that team managed to lose. So first, the Atlantic Division. Boston College did the stupidest thing imaginable and fired Jeff Jagodzinski for daring to interview for an NFL dream job. Wake Forest lost key players in Sam Swank and Aaron Curry. Clemson went 4-4 in conference last year, when they were stacked. They’ve lost everybody. NC State is not going to be all that great this year, so the Atlantic is between Florida State and Maryland. And we all know that Maryland does everything they can all year long to avoid winning when they have to, so expect Florida State to come to Charlotte for the Queen City’s first college conference championship game.

On to the Coastal. It makes me sick to say this, but I think that the September 26 game pitting UNC against Georgia Tech decides this division. I just don’t know what Virginia Tech is going to bring to the offensive side of the ball this year, Miami’s going to stay the same or dip with Robert Marve transferring, and Duke’s still a year or two away from actually beating anyone in-conference. Trouble is, the ‘Heels always choke when an important game’s on the line, and they have to go to Atlanta. Before I retch, I’ll pick Tech to win the Coastal and the league this year. No way can Florida State defend a triple option with the size, speed and experience Paul Johnson’s boys have. Trouble is, I don’t know that Georgia can, either…


Big East

Another strange race last year. Sure, I’ve thought that Cincinnati has had what it takes to win the conference, and sure, I thought that defense would be the key. But come on. Wouldn’t you have picked George Selvie of South Florida over any of the nameless-facelesses playing for the Bearcats last year? And who’d’ve thunk it? They did what they did last year even though Ben Mauk wasn’t allowed to play. Strange race.

Given all that, are you going to pick against Pittsburgh this year? I think South Florida had their window the past couple of years and they blew it. West Virginia and Louisville have to rebuild, Rutgers was a one-year wonder and so was UConn, and I think there’s no way Cincinnati wins twice in a row. Meanwhile, Pitt’s toughest road game is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown, and they’ve beaten WVU two years running. They get South Florida and Cincy at home, and they’re pretty good on talent and (gasp!) coaching. I’m going Pitt.


Pacific 10

Another situation where a team had a chance to win and couldn’t pull it off. Last year it was Oregon State. They beat USC head-to-head and had a chance to win the thing outright, then to tie USC for it in the final week. So what do they do? They go ahead and lose the Civil War to a bad (and I mean bad) Oregon team and hand USC their tenth-straight Pac-10 title. Sickening. But, just as USC hasn’t won in Corvallis since 2004, Oregon State ain’t taken LA by storm since…well, at all this decade. And, since Rick Neuheisel hasn’t fulfilled his promise to make Los Angeles a two-team city yet, I’m going with the safe bet. USC. Back in the Rose Bowl again.


Big Ten

Looks like another tough year for Penn State, as they get Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State on the second half of their schedule. Sure, they get Ohio State at home, but they have to travel to Michigan twice, and for some reason they can never beat Michigan State when they have to. Look for the Nittany Lions to be ranked in the top ten for half the year before stumbling two out of three times against the best competition the Big Ten can throw at them. Ohio State does not play Michigan State this year, and that may be the deciding factor. I’m giving The Big Game to the Buckeyes until RichRod can prove he’s worth a damn, and I’m therefore giving the Big Ten – and its spot in the Rose Bowl losers’ bracket – to Ohio State in 2009.


Big Twelve

Last year I typed a fart sound, and then the Big Twelve turned into the best conference in all of football. Go figure.

However, they can’t play defense down there, and until they can, two things will happen. One: Nebraska will begin and continue to win the North. Two: the OU-Texas winner will go to the Championship game. That didn’t happen last year, and we all saw what happened in the national title game. The voters won’t make the same mistake twice.

OU faces Nebraska and wins the Big Twelve. Colt McCoy wins the Heisman. Why? Because he’s the only one of the big three QBs (Bradford and Tebow being the other two fresh-faced goons with no NFL future) who hasn’t won what has become one of the most increasingly political and worthless awards in all of sports in the last decade.

Also: OU’s only loss this year (at least until they stink up the BCS again) will be in the Bedlam Series against the ‘Pokes of Oklahoma State. We’ll know more about OSU when Georgia comes to town in Week One, but I have a feeling that, with almost everyone returning, they’re the ONLY mid-level B12 team that won’t backslide this year.


Southeastern Conference

I don’t even know what to write here. Last year the SEC was so terrible it was almost not worth watching. Vandy goes to a bowl, but Auburn and Tennessee have losing seasons? The best “program developing into a power” story in the SEC, Kentucky, hits a major backslide and falls to 6-6, only making a bowl because the Volunteers and the WarTigerEaglePlainsmen missed the post-season altogether? The best “bringing a program back from the brink of 1-AA status” coach in the league, Sylvester Croom, is forced to resign rather than fire his entire coaching staff? LSU gives up 50 points two weeks in a row? Georgia gets blown out twice and loses one game (to Alabama) despite scoring 30 points and another (to Georgia Tech) despite scoring 40 points? Florida, the best team in the country for the second half of the year, loses to Ole Miss because their idiot greedy coach decides to run Tim Tebow up the middle instead of kicking a game-winning field goal?

I’ll tell you the two things I’m excited about watching this season in the SEC: Joe Cox and Ole Miss. Houston Nutt has really got things turned around in Oxford, beating eventual national champ Florida 31-30 in The Swamp and then beating juggernaut Texas Tech in their first Cotton Bowl since Eli Manning was their quarterback. Joe Cox (like D.J. Shockley before him), rode the bench for four years waiting his turn. Like Blake Barnes, Cox was the highest-recruited quarterback in the country for a time, relegated to sitting behind more talented QBs like Shockley and Matthew Stafford. But JoeC is still a tremendously talented quarterback. He knows the system. He also led Georgia to victory over Colorado in 2006 when down 13-0 in the fourth quarter, and scored the only touchdown Georgia had against Florida last year. He’ll have weapons in A.J. Greene and Michael Moore, plus Marlon Brown if Mark Richt burns his shirt. And the running tandem Cox will have behind him (Caleb King, Richard Samuel and Carlton Thomas) makes him even more dangerous.

The winner of Georgia-Florida wins the East this year, and I think the winner of Alabama-Ole Miss wins the West. That said, Alabama’s got a ton of talent coming back, as does Ole Miss. The difference, I think, will be hunger. Alabama is coming off of a disappointing loss in the SEC Title game, plus that embarrassment at the hands of undefeated Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss, on the other hand, knows it’s a program in resurgence. They can taste it, and they’re hungry for success. Georgia, meanwhile, is almost getting a veteran recruiting class in with the number of veteran starters returning from injury. Jeff Owens, Trinton Sturdivant and Marcus Washington are only the biggest names returning from injury. Also, don’t forget that Georgia hasn’t failed to beat a defending national champion since 1999, its only such failure in thirty years. And the Dawgs have faced several defenders: Clemson in 1982, Georgia Tech in 1991, Florida in 1997, LSU in 2004, Florida in 2007, and LSU in 2008. All victories. Georgia beats Florida in Jacksonville and goes on to the SEC Championship, narrowly defeating a hungry Ole Miss team 18-15, which just might get them into the national championship game as a one-loss team, even after losing their season finale in Atlanta to Tech, 34-27.


BCS Bowls

BCS National Championship Game: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Texas Christian
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Penn State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh

Gotta say dapolla that is bold even for a die hard UGA fan. Like I said I work in a UGA store and even the best of fans are hoping for 8-9 wins, but not you. The SEC Championship, and then the National Championship. You have some solid veterans coming back off injury and a good recruiting class, but there is still a BIG ? when its comes to leadership. Joe Cox was wanting to be the leader but he may not even play much this year. Not that I'm saying Florida is gonna repeat, but to think National Championship is a little strong. You guys have to worry about getting out of Stillwater with a win, and not so much about winning any kind of Championships.

You're right. Darn our forward-thinking, scheduling actual away games with out-of-conference opponents that are worth a damn! Remind me the last time you guys left Florida to do that???

But when you look at the schedule, you have to face the fact that the SEC is down, and that UGA's schedule is VERY light. Not to insult OSU, RxDawgboy, but SCarolina's down, LSU is down, Auburn is down, Tennessee is down, Arkansas is down, Kentucky is down...Vandy is up and Florida is up and Tech is up. And if I assume a Vandy win, pray for a Florida win and accept a Tech loss, I'm not really being too bold. Not really at all.

dapolla wrote:

You're right. Darn our forward-thinking, scheduling actual away games with out-of-conference opponents that are worth a damn! Remind me the last time you guys left Florida to do that???

By the way, the answer to that is \"Not since at least 2001 has Florida played an out-of-conference opponent on their home field without leaving the state of Florida\"...and I really don't know when the last time was. Georgia, meanwhile, will go to Oklahoma State, Oregon and Colorado very soon. We went to Arizona State last year. We also schedule quality out-of-conference non-rival opponents for home games. Florida? Yeah, they schedule Wyoming and FAU.

In Florida's national championship years, for example, their out-of-conference opponents have consisted of:

1996 - Southwestern Louisiana, Georgia Southern, and Florida State

2006 - Southern Miss, Central Florida, Western Carolina and Florida State

2008 - Hawai'i, Miami (FL), The Citadel (the same team that got Auburn excluded from the national title picture in 2004), and Florida State

In Georgia's national title years, our out-of-conference opponents have been:

1927 - Virginia, Yale, Furman, Clemson, Mercer, and Georgia Tech

1942 - Jacksonville, Furman, Cincinnati, UT-Chattanooga, Georgia Tech

1946 - UT-Chattanooga, UNC, Miami (FL), Furman, Georgia Tech

1968 - Clemson, South Carolina (then in the ACC), Houston, Georgia Tech

1980 - Texas A&M, Clemson, TCU, South Carolina (ACC), Georgia Tech

So yeah...who's had the easier road? Of course you're bound to lose a few games in there. But we never powder-puffed it, GatorSTRONG. Never powder-puffed it.
Just saying...

We aren't going to beat anybody if our guys keep getting suspended.

Please take a step back and breathe. I never said that Florida was gonna win anything. I said that UGA has a lack of leadership. The same thing that plagued them last year. We can speculate all we want to about how good new players are going to be. But until they strap on the helmet and play some SEC football they are unproven. To have so many QB questions, only 1 reciever that you can consistently count on, and WM at the helm of the defense. I would say there are a couple of ? around this year. Again need to state that I am not plugging Forida, I think Bama will be more hungry this year, and as always there is never a garrantee in the SEC that you will have an easy schedule.