Looking at Saturday's Biggie

Here are four possible scenarios with projected probabilities of actual outcomes:

Scenario #1 (33% probabability this will happen)
Bama 27 Florida 20
Bama wins w/ superior line play on both offense & D. Tide wins turnover battle; plays even on special teams and penalties. Steady, powerful line play w/ few mistakes continues to take Tide to championship status. Good ground game is aided by timely pass completions to control TOP and sustain scoring drives. Pass def is air-tight; rushing defense is satisfactory. Tide rolls to BCS Title Game.

Scenario #2 (50 % probability this will happen)
Florida 38 Bama 20
Florida wins w/ exceptional offense. Combination of run, pass, and run-option overwhelms Bama just as FSU, GA, SC, etc. were obliterated. Superior speed on offense and defense and special teams whips Alabama. Bama keeps it close for two only quarters.


Scenario #3 (66% probability this will happen)
Florida 31 Bama 27
Gators prevail in back-and-forth struggle. Most aspects of game are even, i.e. turnovers, yardage, special teams, etc. Gators superior speed and skill players provide enough big plays to account for margin of victory.


Scenario #4 (33% probability this will happen)
Florida 45 Bama 20
Florida wins in blowout that is not as close as score indicates. Gators rip Alabama with little more difficulty than it had in trampling FSU, GA, SC and LSU. Gators dominate all facets of game using speed and crisp execution to move ball through the air and on ground. Early Gator lead forces Tide out of its game plan and destroys players’ competitive drive.


The foregoing analyses obviously favor Florida. As much as I loathe the Gators, I think they will win. I will, however, be cheering for the Tide. Bama does have one thing in its favor here:
DawgSpeare’s Favorite Teams
Dawgs
Whoever is playing against Florida
Alabama
BYU

I think it's more likely:

80% Florida Offense rolls, though not as fast, over Alabama. Alabama is the toughest D that Florida has faced all season, but playing excellent D against Florida means they score 35 instead of 50. Bama's lines help things from being as ugly as they could have been, but their lack of a spectacular offense means they simply can't hang with an even well defended Gators team: Florida 38, Bama 24

19.999% Florida's Offense rolls right over the tide. Another allegedly great team embarassed by the Gator Juggernaut. Florida wins it in typical Gator fashion over 47-17, sending Bama to the LSU, UGA, and FSU graveyard.

0.001% Alabama wins by some Miracle. A last second field goal after an onside kick recovery as time expires.

You guys remember what happened last time Bama was an underdawg to a talented UGA team? HA Just sayin!

God, I hope you guys are right.
My stomach has been in knots all week!
If FL scores the first TD and is leading at the half, they win.

Yes, Steve...