My own breakdown based on yours
August 30: vs. Georgia Southern in Athens
Not a lot of energy needs to be expended here, other than that we can use the Eagles to the south of us to practice for the option that CMU, Florida and (possibly) Auburn are going to throw at us. The last time we faced Georgia Southern they scored four touchdowns on us, which was okay because we scored seven. No reason to believe that the score will be any different this time around.
UGA 48, GSU 28
Gotta disagree with the score. Ga Sou is in major trouble. Something like half their team are underclassmen and they didnt do that well last year to begin with.
It's definately a rebuilding year for Ga Sou. Our defense is still very sound. Look for Rennie Curran to really step it up a notch. There's no way they score 28. I give them 7...10 tops.
Offensively 48 is plausible to be sure but it will be more like 35. Why?
Two reasons:
1. CMR has too much class to run the score up on someone who doesnt deserve it (Hawaii did after what they did to Henderson)
2. He'll be putting every player that dresses out in this game. The first string MAY show up for a little bit in the very begining of the third quarter. Why risk injuring first stringers on something so insignificant? Why not let the future talent get a chance to shine? Why not show class?
I think we get a 28-0 lead, then CMR puts in the reserves. GA sou scores once against our reserves. maybe a field goal in there somewhere. Our reserves score another one on them, possibly another field goal or TD
The range will be UGA 35-45 Ga sou 3-10
I think this will be closer to 35-3 than 45-10
September 7: vs. Central Michigan in Athens
This game will be regionally broadcast, which is good in my opinion, because it means that my Carolina Panthers will get a good look at Dan LeFevour, and maybe they'll grow a brain and draft him. Other than that, expect a romp.
UGA 45, CMU 17
UGA will probably score 45-35, CMU's defense is abyssmal, same scenario as GA Sou. I agree with your score for CMU's offense. Once again it's due to CMR's class and not wanting to injure the marquis players. The only reason I give them 17 (give or take 3) is because their team's offense is all it has going for them (they lost to NORTH DAKOTA STATE by 30 pts last yr). it's also young, not a lot of loss to graduation or drafting, altho to read thier press you'd never know it (\"we're a younger team this year, last year we had 11 seniors, this year we have 10\"..OMG!!!!) They came close to beating purdue and hung 48 pts on them. UGA's defense is better than purdue's so this will be a non issue.
UGA 35-45 CMU 14-20. UGA second string in later than vs Ga sou late third, early 4th. CMU keeps first string in the entire game. Scores 7 in the 4th vs reserves. Odds are it will be wayy closer to 13 or 14. Their kicker is a little better than 50/50 in field goals but is around 90% on PAT.
September 13: at South Carolina
Don't get fooled: last year was only a fluke if we prove it this year. SCarolina has a great defense, and both Brinkleys will be back on the field. Personally I don't think there's any way we come in unprepared this year. Last year we were coming off of a very emotionally charged win against an Oklahoma State team that we thought was much better than it turned out to be (my apologies, RxCowboy). This year we'll be coming off of one cupcake and a midmajor. In fact, don't be surprised if CMU scores first the week before, because THIS is the game CMR will have on his calendar. I expect a hard-fought battle for three quarteres, but UGA will pull away late, much like the Ole Miss game last year.
UGA 27, USC 16
South Carolina had one thing going for them last year. A general aire of bad vibes. For those whoe were at the game, it was a stifling 95 degree the entire time...no breeze. something foul was on the air but there was no logical or statistical reason to be worried. Then a huge fight broke out in the student section...and no one broke it up. it was very strange. there was just something \"off\" that whole day leading up to the game. and tripp chandler couldnt do anything right that game. 2 drop TD passes, 2 dropped 25+yard passes. catch ANY of those and it was a diff game.
This year: theyve lost a lot of people. Their QB and Best running back gone. Their D still looks relatively solid but their secondary has a couple of holes in it. Our one two punch of passing and power backs will make things very difficult for SCar. I say the game is won on passing though. Your UGA score is spot on. Our Defense will hold them to 14 or less. In fact im going to say they hang 10, 14 is just luck. Their O simply doesn't have it this year. First string stays in entire game.
September 20: at Arizona State
This will be Knowshon Moreno's coming out party on the year. As I've said all year leading up to this game, the toughest part about playing the Sun Devils will be the plane flight out there. ASU was intensely overrated last year, as was proven any time they played a team that ended up playing in January. Their defense won't be able to hold us, but their high-flying air attack will score points. Side note: Reshad Jones will grow a brain over the summer, and he will NOT allow any of those points.
UGA 35, ASU 27, Knowshon 136
ASU wont hang that many on us. UGA will hang more on ASU. Their QB is still questionable due to his thumb issues and their best receiever will be playing baseball. Anytime they played a team worth their salt last year they ended up folding like the french army. Their D lost a lot in their secondary...get past their D-line, who's not that impressive and also down a starter from lasst year and it's a horse race for atleast 6 yards a down. Knowshon alone will carry 150 yards if our O-line hits their blocking assignments.
ASU scores 27 TOPs, I think it'll be closer to 18-21. UGA puts on 35.
September 27: vs. Alabama in Athens
I know you never count Alabama out of it. I know you never bet against a head coach like Nick Saban. I know they took us to the wire in Tuscaloosa last year. But seriously, this game is not going to be a problem. Before Mark Richt, we were 0-10 against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. We are 2-0 at Alabama now. Also, under Mark Richt we are 1-0 against Alabama at home. That is, we have NOT lost to Alabama under CMR. And they just don't have the talent yet to take it to us. The last two wins against Alabama at Tuscaloosa came by a combined 5 points, but the last win in Athens was by two touchdowns. Expect something in the middle this time.
UGA 30, Alabama 19
John parker whas his name will have to get used to an entire new receiver corps. He also get to learn a new O from a new offensive coordinator. Factor in a couple of losses on O-line and he'll have his hands full. He's talented but those are major hurdles. Their running game will be as good as last year.
I dont think theyll be as good as last year. UGA has home field advantage. I agree with your 30-19 prediction for the most part but for Alabama they score 19 tops.
October 11: vs. Tennessee in Athens
If you have doubts about this game, you haven't been paying attention. We've gotten blown out by these chumps for two straight years. We were better than them last year, and lost to them anyway, in embarrassing fashion. And we have the bye week before the game. You know who Tennessee has the week before us? Okay, so it's Northern Illinois, but before that, Auburn, and before that Florida. They'll be tired. It'll be in front of friendlies. It'll probably be the last Tennessee game Larry ever calls.
UGA 55, UT 24, Knowshon 178
This is plausible. UGA will be scremaing for blood and riding for wrath, plain and simple. I also smell black out here. Home field, black out, kiss of death for UT. Oh yeah their D-line isn't nearly as good as last year. Get knowshon and curran past them and you look at 6 yards a play. I don't think the score will be 55-24. i think the score will be the same as last years game 35-14, with the winners and losers switched.
October 18: vs. Vanderbilt in Athens
Vandy has kept it close the last couple of years, beating us with a game-winning kick two years ago and forcing us to kick a game-winner last year. I refuse to believe that we are going to struggle with Vandy this year. They literally have NOTHING right now. Let's look for an old-fashioned blowout.
UGA 33, VU 3
I disagree, for some reason vandy always plays us tough. they always bring it harder than any other game they play the rest of the year. we always show up expecting to run them over, dont take them seriously and then have to scramble to make things right. sometimes we dont scramble fast enough, remember 2k6? I say they play us close on pure emotion (we did celebrate on the center of their field last year after all). but yes, they do have nothing. I still say they score more than you think. I say 14-35 is more likely. deep secondary is still solid (anchored by DJ Moore who I see playing in the NFL). They've still got their QB. However their line is gone...their receiver corps is gone. There's just a lot to be said for emotion and desire for revenge though.
UGA 35-14
October 25: at LSU
Okay, this is where it gets a little unbelievable. Come on, a game against defending national champions LSU at Baton Rouge? Probably at night? Are you KIDDING? LSU's going to win, right? Wrong. LSU has no quarterback. LSU has talent, but it's young talent. We have their old O-line coach, who'll have insight, since the seniors are still his boys over there. And Les Miles is an idiot. Have I mentioned that of the last six times we've faced defending national champions, we've beaten five? We beat Clemson in 1982, Tech in 1991, Florida in 1997, LSU in 2004, and Florida in 2007. The only defender we've lost to since the seventies Tide dynasty was the 1999 Tennessee Vols. Of course, then we beat them four times in a row, so we got back at them.
UGA 20, LSU 13
This is accurate but we've got to deal with home field advantage. Never underestimate the yelling capacity of drunk cajuns. Audibles will be impossible but by this time both offense and defense should have an idea of what thye need to do so hopefully, unless LSU switches stuff up majorly, audbiles wont be a major factor. Their QB is gone....this is huge for us. Friggin ivy leaguer is their best shot. Keiland williams who is to fumbling what tripp chandler is to dropped passes will probably be their best running back. Their D-Line is VERY good, arguably best in the country. There are chinks in the armor though. UK beat them LAST YEAR and theyre not nearly as good as did arkansas. Our passing game better be firing on all cylindars. Our line better be ready to rise to the challenge to give our backs room to run. I hope to God Southerland is healthy by this game but it's wishful thinking. He'd be needed. We need someone big to pound the ball through...and we NEED it for this game. Someone like TJ duckett. never get more than 3 yards. But always getting first downs. convert a lineman if you need to.
we win, more due to our d and their o outmatching each other and our O and their D being evenly matched. It's close though. I say 24-21 UGA.
November 1: vs. Florida in Jacksonville
This is a tough one to call. I'm not as confident that we're going to beat Florida this year as I was last year. We'll be coming off of a tough game and -- if I'm right -- an emotional victory in LSU. Florida will be coming off of what should be an easy win against a Woodson-less Kentucky. Florida is stacked with talent, as are we, but they won't be as tired as we are. And Urban Meyer is a cagey guy who still isn't happy about that celebration last year. BUT: Tim Tebow is still their quarterback, and there's been no indication that Urban Meyer's going to run him any less this year. BUT: It looks like Emmanuel Moody will be their starting tailback, and he's an idiot. BUT: Tebow can't play defense. BUT: This is OUR year, and no one else's. Therefore, I think it'll be a game like last year. A high-scoring affair (Florida will score 30 again), but at the end it is the Dawgs who will be standing tall.
UGA 33, Florida 30, Knowshon 150
your analysis here is spot on. look for them to still be angry over our end zone celbration. we can stop the run from tebow and otherwise. Why? their line graduated some folks, bringing forth a new crop. A we trampled their line last year...when it was better. We found the chinks in their O's armor. Keep them to less than 30 and we win. I think your score though is close though, I subtract 3 points from both but still have UGA on top.
Their d line isnt quite as good as last year. Knowshon made mincemeat of them last year. The entire game will be about ball control. Holding onto it. eating the clock.
UGA wins 30-27
November 1: at Kentucky
Did I mention that Andre' Woodson is gone?
UGA 42, UK 21
this will be a beating. he's gone. Their entire O though has been picked clean of veterans. And i dont see anyone bragging about UK's recruiting classes. I see second stringers coming on in the 4th quarter. UGA wins 35-7
November 15: at Auburn
Auburn will be instituting a new offense with a new quarterback (or quarterback tandem). The spread offense coming from Troy will be different than anything Auburn has ever run IN ITS HISTORY, and Auburn will be young. They'll have largely the same defense that allowed us 82 points in the last two games, except that Quentin Groves is gone. I hate calling a blowout against one of our fiercest rivals, so I'll make this prediction closer than I think it'll be.
UGA 35, Auburn 21, Knowshon 189
Remember what we did to Troy last year? kick up a TD and you get Auburn's O output in this game at best, based only on SEC talent. Then knock them back down a TD because we leave our first string d in for the whole game. Oh and they have to learn an entirely new defensive system. And theyve got 2 competing qb's, niether of whom were better than cox. Their D will be no better than they were last yr. Our O will be a TD better.
So add a TD from our blackout game and add to troys offense and you get:
45-34. This is a game that has the potential to be much closer though based on emotion, homefield advantage, and people stepping up to play at the level becoming of the SEC. theyre ranked number 10 for a reason.
November 29: vs. Georgia Tech in Athens
They've got a new coach. They've got a new quarterback. They've got new receivers. They've got a new system. We've got the bye week and home field advantage. If we're going to surpass the 51-7 blowout in 2002, this is probably the year. God almighty, it'll be beautiful. En route to an undefeated regular season, the final score will be:
UGA 55, Tech 3, Knowshon 206
it will be closer but notbecause it can't be...see analysis of CMU and Ga sou for why. mark richt's sense of class
closer to 45-10